Investment value analysis of the hottest paper ind

Analysis of the investment value of the paper industry in 2005 (1)

after a long development, the paper industry has become an industry closely related to the national economy and social and cultural industries. At present, the paper industry is facing the huge demand brought by the rapid development of cultural information industry and the upgrading of consumption structure, and the opportunity for the rapid development of the industry has come. Facing the upcoming securities market in 2005, the investment opportunities in the paper sector deserve further exploration

the growth trend is beyond doubt

the industrial benefits have improved. With the rapid growth of the domestic economy, paper-making enterprises have used their advantages in the capital market and policy support to make huge investments in equipment and technology. They have changed the situation of obsolete equipment, inferior products, insufficient supply of raw materials, serious environmental pollution and losses in the whole industry in the past. The output has increased year by year, from 28million tons in 1998 to 41.17 million tons in 2003. Since 2004, the production and sales of machine-made paper and paperboard have accelerated. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, the sales revenue of the paper industry reached 212.714 billion yuan, an increase of 24.53% year-on-year. The net profit was 10.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.62% and a smooth transition without impact was achieved when switching between modes. The growth of profits exceeded the growth of main business income, indicating that the gross profit margin of the paper industry rebounded and the profitability increased

the industry boom will continue to improve. As a basic raw material industry that is not significantly affected by the cyclical impact, although it is affected by the continuous high prices of energy, transportation costs and the recent interest rate hike, the development momentum of the paper industry to maintain a higher growth rate than GDP will not change. Moreover, there is still a huge cost gap in China's paper industry if the sealing gasket of the tension machine breaks down. At this stage when the production capacity of the processing and manufacturing industry is generally surplus, the paper industry is one of the few industries with growing demand and short supply, which is a typical demand driven industry boom. At present, China's per capita consumption of paper products is less than 33 kg, far lower than the world's per capita consumption of 52 kg; In terms of total consumption, experts predict that the total consumption of paper and paperboard in China will reach 50million tons by 2005 and about 70million tons by 2010. It is estimated that the capacity and demand gap will be more than 10 million tons. In addition, the trend of forestry paper integration, the pressure of RMB appreciation and anti-dumping trade policies have created a good internal and external economic environment for the development of the paper industry

the upgrading of consumption structure highlights the investment value. The continuous upgrading of consumption structure in modern society has a particularly obvious impact on the paper industry. In terms of the domestic market demand for different grades of paper products, the supply of low-grade products is relatively surplus, and the supply of medium and high-grade products is in short supply. Moreover, the market demand for high-grade paper products is growing rapidly, and the price fluctuation is small. Therefore, high-grade paper has become the main profit area of the paper industry. However, modern paper industry is a capital and technology intensive industry. In 2015, there are technical and capital barriers in the field of high-end paper, especially in the field of high-end paper. Enterprises that can use the capital market to raise a large amount of funds and constantly invest in new projects can enhance their competitiveness and obtain excess profits in the industry. In terms of the development of various sub industries, high-grade paper, coated paper, white cardboard, low weight light coated paper, strong and tough Kraft linerboard, special paper and other sub industries with strong growth in the paper industry. The investment value of the paper industry in 2005 was almost reflected in these growth industries

plate differentiation obviously pays attention to blue chip growth stocks

performance is the core factor affecting the stock price trend. At present, among the more than 1000 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen, there are only 24 listed companies in the paper sector, but from the perspective of performance, there are obvious differences among industry leading stocks, second tier stocks and underperforming stocks, and the trend of stock prices basically reflects the differentiation of performance. From the beginning of the year to December 14, the trend of the paper industry index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange index was generally similar, down about 13%; The earnings per share of the two leading stocks in the paper sector in the first three quarters were more than 0.45 yuan, with an average increase of about 11%, which is far more than the market trend; Earnings per share in the first three quarters were 0 There are 5 second tier stocks with a price of 40 yuan, and the trend of the whole year is slightly stronger than that of the market. Especially since September, the overall trend of these second tier stocks is very strong; In the first three quarters, there were as many as 17 underperforming stocks with earnings per share less than 0.20 yuan, accounting for about 2/3 of the entire sector, with an average decline of about 26%, which was far behind the market in trend. It can be seen that performance is the core influencing factor. The mining of its investment value in 2005 should also be reflected in the excellent growth of this kind of engine used in the replacement model of aventador. However, according to the changes in industry and company fundamentals, speculative opportunities will be reflected in all three types of stocks